Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Mosul, Mosul, Iraq

Abstract

Considering the potential impacts of climate change on meteorological data is likely to be more reliable in the design of hydrological systems. One of the recognized methods for the assessment the influence of climate changes by analyzing the weather data. The study aims were inspecting the maximum, minimum temperature and rainfall data for any discernible trends in the city of Delhi between 1901 – 2010 periods. Mann-Kendall non-parametric test including correlation was adopted to analyze the available data for three periods: 1901-2010; 1901-1955 and 1956-2010. Annual, monsoonal and pre-monsoon rainfalls have been examined for trends analysis. Results show that the maximum and minimum annual temperatures exhibit an increasing and decreasing trend, respectively. On the other hand, monsoonal and annual rainfall shows increasing trends. A strong negative correlation is noted between annual rainfall and annual maximum temperature for 1901-1955 and 1956-2010 periods as well as for the entire period of analysis. A strong negative correlation is also noted between the monsoonal rainfall and the annual maximum temperature. In addition to previous findings, a noticeable correlation is shown between minimum temperature and annual rainfall for 1956-2010 periods of records. However, a weak and negative correlation was reported between minimum temperature and annual rainfall for the periods between 1901-1955 and 1956-2010.

Keywords

Main Subjects

  1. Jiang, T., Chen YD, XU, C YU, Chen Xi, Singh, V.P. (2007). "Comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change simulated by six hydrological models in the Dongjiang basin," Journal of Hydrology, vol. 336, pp. 316-333, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.01.010.
  2. Dracup, J. A., and Vicuña, S. (2005). "An Overview of Hydrology and Water Resources Studies on Climate Change," World Water and Environmental Resources Congress. the California Experience. Paper presented at the Environmental & Water Resources Institute Congress conference, American Society of Civil Engineers, Anchorage, Alaska, May 15-19.
  3. Hadi, S.J. and Tombul, M. (2018). "Long-term spatiotemporal trend analysis of precipitation and temperature over Turkey," Meteorological  Applications, vol. Volume25, pp. Pages 445-455. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1712.
  4. Asfaw, A., Simane, B., Hassen, A. and Bantider, A. (2018). "Variability and time series trend analysis of rainfall and temperature in northcentral Ethiopia: A case study in Woleka sub-basin," Weather and Climate Extremes, vol. 19, pp. 29-41, DOI:10.1016/j.wace.2017.12.0022018.
  5.  IPCC. (2007), "Impacts, adaption and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change," Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
  6. IPCC. (2007a), "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Asia Climate Change 2007 " Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 469-506.
  7. Jain, S. K., Kumar, V. and Saharia, M.(2013). "Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Trends in Northeast India," International Journal of Climatology, vol. 33, pp. 968–978, DOI: 10.1002/joc.3483.
  8. Hingane, L. S., Rup Kumar, K. and Ramanamurthy, B .V. (1985). "Long-term trends of surface air temperature in india," International Journal of Climatology vol. 5, pp.521-528, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370050505.
  9. Pant, G. B. and Kumar, R. (1997).  "Climates of South Asia," John Willey & Sons.Chichester, UK, p. 320, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199804)18:5<581::AID-JOC267>3.0.CO;2-%23.
  10. Sinha Ray, K.C., Mukhopadhya, R.K. and Chowdhary, S.K. (1997). "Trend in maximum and minimum temperature and sea level pressure over India," INTROMET 1997 IIT Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi.
  11. Arora,  M., Goel, N. K, and Singh, R. (2005). "Evaluation of temperature trends over India / Evaluation de tendances de température en Inde," Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol. 50, https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/thsj20.
  12. Singh, P., Kumar, V., Thomas, T., and Arora, M. (2008). "Basin-wide assessment of temperature trends in northwest and central India / Estimation par bassin versant de tendances de température au nord-ouest et au centre de l'Inde," Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol. 53, pp. 421-433, https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/thsj20.
  13. Ahmad, Q. K, and Warrick, R. A. (1996). "The implications of climate and sea level change for Bangladesh," Kluwer Academic Publisher, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
  14. CICERO. (2000). "Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research " P.O. Box 1129 Blindern N-0318 Oslo, Norway.
  15. Khattak, M. S., Babel, M. S. and Sharif, M. (2011). "Hydro-meteorological trends in the upper Indus River basin in Pakistan," Climate Research, vol. 46, pp. 103-119, DOI: 10.3354/cr00957.
  16. [16] Marco, G, Stefan, B, and Tong, J.  (2003). "Detection and Visualization of Climate Trends in China" No. 15, Giessen, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Science (CAS), 210008 Nanjing, PR.China.http://hdl.handle.net/10419/50495.
  17. Chen, H., Guo, S., Chong,yu.Xu., Singh, V.P. (2007). "Historical temporal trends of hydro-climatic variables and runoff response to climate variability and their relevance in water resource management in the Hanjiang basin," Journal of Hydrology, vol. Volume 344, pp. 171-184,  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.06.034.
  18. Zhang, Q, Jiang,  T., Gemmer, M. and Becker, S. (2005). "Precipitation, temperature and runoff analysis from 1950 to 2002 in the Yangtze basin, China," Hydrological Sciences–Journal, vol. 50, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.50.1.65.56338.
  19. [19] Tirkey, N., Parhi, P. K.,  Lohani, A. K. and Chandniha, S. K. (2020). "Analysis of precipitation variability over Satluj Basin, Himachal Pradesh, India: 1901–2013," Journal of Water and Climate Change, vol. 12, pp. 127-135, DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2020.136.
  20. Nikhil Raj, P. P. and Azeez, P. A. (2012). "Trend analysis of rainfall in Bharathapuzha River basin, Kerala, India," International Journal of Climatology, vol. 32, pp.533-539,https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2283.
  21. Ramesh, K. V. and Goswami, P. (2007). "Reduction in temporal and spatial extent of the Indian summer monsoon," Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 34 (23), DOI: 10.1029/2007GL031613.
  22. Goswami, B. N., V. Venugopal, D. Sengupta, M. S. Madhusoodanan, and Xavier, P. K. (2006). "Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a WarmingEnvironment," Science, vol. 314(5804), pp. 1442-1445, DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027.
  23. Archer, D. R. and Fowler, H. J. (2004). "Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin, global teleconnections and hydrological implications," Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 8, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-8-47-2004.
  24.  Zhang, Q., Jiang, T., Gemmer, M., Becker, S. (2005). "Precipitation, temperature and runoff analysis from 1950 to 2002 in the Yangtze basin, China "Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol. 50(1), pp. 65-79, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.50.1.65.56338.
  25. Raziei, T., Arasteh P. D., Saghfian, B. (2005). "Annual Rainfall Trendin Aridand Semi-arid Regionsof Iran," ICID 21st European Regional Conference 15-19 May, 2005 Frankfurt (Oder) and Slubice-Germany and Poland, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236229202.
  26. Jain, S. K. and Kumar, V. (2012). "Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India," Current Science, vol. 102, pp. 37-42, https://www.jstor.org/stable/24080385.
  27. Kendall, M. G. (1975). "Rank Correlation Measures," Charles Griffin, London, UK., vol. 4th Edition.
  28. Mann, H. B. (1945). "Non-parametric tests against trend," Econometrica, vol. 13, pp. 245-259.
  29. Burn,D. H. (1994). "Hydrologic effects of climatic change in west-central Canada," Journal of Hydrology, vol. 160, pp. 53-70, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(94)90033-7.
  30. Burn, D.H., Sharif, M. and Zhang, K. (2010). "Detection of trends in hydrological extremes for Canadian watersheds," Hydrological processes, vol. 24 (13), https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7625.
  31. Burn, D. H., Abdul Aziz, O. I., and Pietroniro, A. (2004). "Comparison of Trends in Hydrological Variables for Two Watersheds in the Mackenzie River Basin," Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques, vol. 29, pp. 283-298, https://doi.org/10.4296/cwrj283.
  32. Burns, D. A., Klaus, J., and Mchale, M. R. (2007). "Recent climate trends and implications for water resources in the Catskill Mountain region, New York, USA," Journal of Hydrology, vol. Volume 336, pp. 155-170, DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.12.019.
  33. Burn, D. H. (2008). "Climatic influences on streamflow timing in the headwaters of the Mackenzie River Basin," Journal of Hydrology vol. 352(1), pp. 225-238, DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.01.019.
  34. Sharif, M., Burn, D. H. and Hofbauer, K. M. (2013). "Generation of daily and hourly weather variables for use in climate change vulnerability assessment," Water Resources Management, vol. 27(5),pp.1533–1550,DOI:10.1007/s11269-012-0253-4.
  35. Rana, A., Uvo, C. B., Bengtsson, L., Sarthi, P. P. (2012).  "Trend analysis for rainfall in Delhi and Mumbai, India," Climate Dynamics, vol. 38, pp. 45-56, DOI:10.1007/s00382-011-1083-4.
  36. Yue, S., Pilon, P.J., Phinney, B. and Cavadias, G. (2002). "The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series," Hydrological Processes, vol. 16, pp. 1807-1829, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1095.
  37. Hess, A., Iyer, H., Malm, W. (2001). "Linear trend analysis, a comparison of methods," Atmospheric Environment, vol. 35(30), pp. 5211-5222, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(01)00342-9.
  38. Hirsch, R. M., Slack, J. R. and Smith, R. A.  (1982). "Techniques of Trend Analysis for Monthly Water Quality Data," Water Resources Research, vol. 18(1), pp. 107-121, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR018i001p00107.
  39. Helsel, D. R. and Hirsch, R. M. (1992). "Statistical methods in water resources," Elsevier, Amsterdam, 522 pp.